PRLog (Press Release)– Apr 17, 2011– Following a year in which BMI believes saw the recovery begin, 2011 will signal further growth and in some freight modes a return to pre-downturn levels.
Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 7.25% in 2011 following an estimated growth of 14% in 2010.
Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 0.42% in 2011. The sector was hit by the downturn, but following a year of growth in 2010 estimated at 25.3%, BMI expects growth to level off and remain steady.
Rail and air freight volumes are also expected continue growing in 2011. Rail freight will specifically benefit over the medium term, to 2015, from increased investment from mining firms which are ploughing money into their supply chains in order to ensure their coal gets to ports smoothly.
Headline Industry Data
* 2011 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.45%; * 2011 rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.13%; * 2011 Port of Novorossiysk throughput is forecast by 2.14%; * 2011 road freight is forecast to grow by 0.42%; * 2011 total real trade growth is forecast by 7.25%.
Key Industry Trends
Rail Freight Operators Look East And West
Russian rail freight players have been increasing their cooperation with rail freight entities in neighbouring states. The latest developments see link ups between Russian firms and those in China and Finland as Russia's rail freight sector seeks to play a role in connecting the east with the west and competing with the shipping lines to offer faster connections.
Selling Up
The sale of stakes in some of Russia's ports continue, with Gennady Timchenko of Gunvor likely to gain a stake in the port of Murmansk, a developing port, both from the point of view of the oil and gas industry but also as a hub port of the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
Risks To Outlook
The steady base for growth within the country's freight transport sector with BMI's positive outlook for the Russian economy. Private consumption along with investment is driving Russia's economic growth, with our Country Risk desk forecasting GDP to increase by 4.3% in 2011.
Risks to outlook come in the form of the Sochi Olympics, which we believe will see an uptick in volumes thro ferrari ugh the port of Novorossiysk and on the road and rail networks in the region. The drive by mining firms to take the upgrade of railways and ports into their own hands in order to ensure a smooth supply chain offers upside risk to our rail freight forecasts in the mid term.
For more information or to purchase this report, go
0 Comments:
Post a Comment